Who Will Cry "Uncle" First?
In the last few weeks we’ve witnessed Russian slaughter and devastation of cities as well as heroic and skillful counter assaults by a nimble Ukrainian resistance. The Russian invasion of Ukraine introduces a new kind of World War, affecting countries and people throughout the world. Economic sanctions are causing global energy costs to rise and the price of some agricultural products to skyrocket, with shortages of wheat hitting poor countries the hardest. Another jolt to global supply lines predicts no let-up in inflation.
Military strategists in the US and Europe see no off-ramp and forecast a long and demoralizing war. At some point, however, Ukraine will have to negotiate a truce or political resolution with Russia. The outpouring of support from Western capitals is turning into anxiety as Europe assess how possible outcomes of the war would affect their own countries, as well as global politics. According to Paul Pillar of The National Interest:
“Whenever serious negotiations appear nearer, disagreements among Ukrainians and their foreign supporters will become increasingly apparent and will mar what international unity there has been so far in standing up to Russia’s aggression. “
The Washington Post:
“Ukraine’s Western backers have vowed to respect Kyiv’s decisions in any settlement to end the war with Russia, but with larger issues of global security at stake, there are limits to how many compromises some in NATO will support to win the peace.”
The stiffest pro-war and neoconservatives continue to call on Biden to turn Ukraine skies into a no-fly zone. Others support activating the 2015 Minsk agreements that gave the Donbas area in the East greater autonomy. Many believe that Ukraine will officially declare neutrality and even forfeit some of the Russian-speaking East to Russia, as even Zelensky hints.
From officials in a NATO country that borders Ukraine comes the uber-cynical:
“There is an unfortunate dilemma. The problem is that if it ends now, there is a kind of time for Russia to regroup, and it will restart, under this or another pretext. Putin is not going to give up his goals.”
What once could have been called a border dispute left over from the fall of the Soviet Union has been given a significance that may or may not be justified. For better and worse, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine justifiably brings back the ghosts of WW1 and WW2 and Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe. But is Russia another Germany with grandiose plans to run over Europe? Could the Kremlin do that if it tried? No. Over-estimating your opponents’ strength can be as dangerous as under-estimating it by escalating conflict and discouraging compromise. Suggesting Putin is Hitler does that. It gives strength to war hawks in Russia, Europe and the US.
An official from one country neighboring Ukraine explains the most cynical outlook of its European neighbors:
“For some in NATO, it’s better for the Ukrainians to keep fighting, and dying, than to achieve a peace that comes too early or at too high a cost to Kyiv and the rest of Europe.”
US and European leaders have melted into arm-chair warriors watching Ukraine and Russia fight it out on TV and in other media, expecting Ukraine to fight Russia like the Sparta 300 fought Xerxes’ superior Persian Army to their certain death in the Battle of Thermopylae. For a NATO the underdog can’t join.
Reports this week say President Biden wants to send a high level American to Ukraine as it enters decisive battles in the Donbas region. The question is whether President Zelensky would welcome that move or not.
So, will the scrappy Ukraine fighters push back the Russian troops? Will news of Russian deaths break through the Kremlin’s propaganda? Can NATO sanctions last indefinitely ?
Make no bets; claim no easy victories.