Ultimately Putin Can't Control It.
In a stunning repudiation of diplomacy and whatever good will still existed from other nations, Putin chose invasion and a reckless war. The skies of Ukraine, lit with artillery fire and bombs, were more reminiscent of the first half of the 20th century than anything expected just a few months ago.
Where Putin thinks this will end is anybody’s guess. According to the New York Times, Putin claims the invasion was the only recourse. The Wall Street Journal’s Gerald Seib, outlines the scope of possible consequences of the invasion:
So far, some ordinary Russians are reacting negatively to the invasion. According to the Times, a candid business leader explained to Putin the consequences of some of his possible actions:
“In a televised meeting with Putin, Aleksandr N. Shokhin, the president of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, said Russia needed to remain engaged in global commerce despite looming sanctions. Shokhin was visibly nervous as he asked Putin to take care to avoid doing further damage to Russia’s economy, with Russia promising to strike back against any sanctions imposed upon it over the Ukraine invasion.
“Everything should be done to demonstrate as much as possible that Russia remains part of the global economy and will not provoke, including through some kind of response measures, global negative phenomena on world markets,” Shokhin said.
That’s not going to happen.
Putin may have bitten off more than he can chew. The US and Western powers are poised to choke Russia economically, isolate Russia diplomatically and harass the Russian oligarchs personally. Cutting off trade could paralyze vast sectors of the Russian economy.
However, protests have already broken out in several Russian cities, as celebrities come forward to condemn the invasion. Oxxxymiron, a popular rapper, canceled six new shows in Moscow and St. Petersburg saying:
“I cannot entertain you when Russian missiles are falling on Ukraine.”
Putin’s pay-back to the West may be Putin’s downfall.