Is Ukraine Worth It? (Redux)

No one knows exactly what Vladimir Putin is thinking but the Biden Administration took the bait and dived in.  Biden says he wants to protect the ‘right’ of any country to join NATO, but Ukraine doesn’t even meet the governance standards required of NATO members, including the fight against corruption. And it’s doubtful the split between the Russian-speaking East and other parts of Ukraine would bode well for the ‘stability’ test.

Biden’s hard line isn’t shared by all of the NATO allies. France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia are in all-European talks separate from NATO.  Maybe because each was devastated in WW2, they will find a common language to move forward.

Meanwhile, as the US media froths with their usual hysterics (some pundits wondering if the Ukraine/Russia stand-off will lead to WW3 (?!) ), Ukraine President Zelensky is working to lower the temperature and emotions on both sides. He believes Russia will not invade and is making the rounds reassuring his constituents. But who in this mess actually cares what Ukraine says?

The US State Department claims any invasion of Ukraine is an attempt to by Russia to reconfigure European security arrangements in place since the Cold War.  Given that NATO has been playing geopolitical dominos since Poland the Czech Republic  and Hungary joined in 1997, absorbing ten countries in Eastern Europe once allied with Russia (and four more Yugoslav republics), accusations that Russia has it’s eye on re-establing empire are a bit of a stretch.

NATO is a relic of the Cold War and unfortunately, this crisis is being addressed in a Cold War framework by both sides. Why won’t NATO consider halting its expansion into countries bordering Russia? For almost thirty years, Russia has complained that NATO expansion in Eastern Europe threatens its security. Putin is now drawing a line: NATO not in my backyard.  What harm would come to NATO if it halted recruitment now?

Biden could easily call Putin’s bluff if he listened to regional players who have suggested that Ukraine and other border countries declare their neutrality, aligned neither with NATO nor a Russian alliance. At least that could be a start. Surely the Biden Administration wouldn’t want a war to break out over an abstract ‘principle’ of open NATO membership.

In the end, this crisis grew from a European border dispute and the Europeans, not the US or NATO, need to solve it.