To understand the mind-bending mash-up within American national security policy look no further than the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement signed last Saturday by China and 14 other countries in the Asia-Pacific, including Japan and Australia. According to The Wall Street Journal, the RCEP will “eventually eliminate more than 90% of tariffs on commerce among its 15 member countries, in what economists say will be a boon to trade in the region. It will also give China a more prominent role in setting rules of trade in the Asia-Pacific region at the expense of the U.S….”
But wait! You thought the U.S. signed this type of accord six or seven years ago? You’re right! China has just pulled off a sophisticated Great Power bait-and-switch.
Before Trump targeted it for an early death, the Obama Administration brought together some of the same nations now in the RCEP to form the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) under U.S. leadership, as part of Obama’s Pivot to Asia. Trump pulled the plug on that effort soon after his inauguration, a celebrated opening shot for his “America First” policy. Yet by abandoning a trade deal with Asia-Pacific countries led by the U.S., Trump gave China free rein to sign a similar agreement with China as the dominant power.
The launching of the RCEP Saturday is a direct result of the self-defeating “America First” policy of the Trump Administration. By removing the U.S. from participation in the TPP and other international treaties, Trump weakened rather than expanded American influence in a complicated, ever-changing global system where every country is connected and no country dares to go it alone.
This strategic win for China is still underreported in American media. Trump promised American corporations to ‘level the playing field’ with China through tariffs and other trade barriers. These actions never panned out, but the consequences of a reckless policy that put U.S. credibility on the line will last for decades.
The quasi-military focus of both parties concerning Taiwan and the South China Sea today deflects leadership attention from the global trade and commerce competition with China where it matters most. Again, the Wall Street Journal: “the RCEP is now the “largest regional trade agreement, exceeding the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement and the European Customs Union.” China 1— U.S. 0.
If Trump’s shelving of the TPP was a kick in the gut to allies, the Biden Administration’s war of words with China over Taiwan continues to make them nervous. Why would countries in the region want to solve problems with China using military threats when many just signed a multi-year trade deal that will bring new wealth to the region?
China is applying to other multi-national trade organizations including the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA), which seeks to develop standards in e-commerce and artificial intelligence, and the U.S. appears to be MIA on this as well. China would like nothing better than to break the U.S. stranglehold on international regulations and standards. They’re off to a good start.
Excellent point - we dropped the ball and China swooped it up -